Dr. Ruth Dittrich, Professor of Economics
Presentation Highlights ~
Overview
Adaptation Futures (AF) is the Flagship biennial event of the UN World Adaptation Science Programme (WASP) – hosted by WASP & University of Canterbury NZ and sponsoring partners. AF 2025 was held October 13-16, where over 1,500 members of the climate change adaptation community from around the world gathered in Ōtautahi/Christchurch, New Zealand via an online/hybrid format to share knowledge on the challenges and opportunities of adaptation during the 8th edition of the AF International conference. Dr. Ruth Dittrich, UP School of Business professor, was invited to present at the AF 2025. Her presentation scope is listed below.
—————————————————–
Introduction
Climate change presents significant challenges for agriculture, particularly concerning the impact of heat stress on livestock production. Heat stress not only reduces milk solid production and profitability but also raises animal welfare concerns and broader health issues.
While adaptation strategies such as switching to heat-tolerant breeds exist, these changes may come at the cost of other desirable traits like productivity and cold tolerance. Given the uncertainty surrounding the magnitude and timing of climate change, an abrupt transition between breeds may lead to unnecessary losses. Instead, diversifying livestock breeds into a “portfolio” may enhance resilience and maintain reliable production in a variable climate.
Objectives
This study aims to apply Portfolio Analysis (PA) to determine the most robust combinations of dairy cow breeds that can mitigate the economic impact of heat stress. By evaluating different breed portfolios, we seek to identify an optimal balance between economic efficiency and risk under future climate scenarios.
Methodology
We use climate projections from six General Circulation Models (GCMs) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to assess their effects on milk production returns for three dairy cow breeds: Holstein-Friesian, Jersey, and a mix of the two.
Portfolio Analysis is employed to construct an efficiency frontier of breed combinations, illustrating trade-offs between expected net present value and economic risk. The analysis is conducted for a specific location in New Zealand, providing insights into the viability of different breed strategies under varying climate conditions.
Findings
Our analysis reveals that a diversified breed portfolio can enhance resilience to heat stress by reducing economic variability while maintaining profitability. The efficiency frontier highlights optimal breed combinations that balance risk and return across different climate scenarios.
In particular, certain breed mixes outperform single-breed strategies in terms of economic stability, suggesting that maintaining genetic diversity within herds can be a viable adaptation approach.
Significance of the work for policy and practice
The findings have important implications for policymakers and farmers in climate adaptation planning. By adopting a diversified livestock portfolio, farmers can hedge against climate variability and reduce financial risk.
Policy incentives supporting genetic diversity in dairy herds and promoting adaptive management strategies could enhance the sustainability of livestock production in a changing climate. The study provides a framework for integrating climate risk into agricultural decision-making, fostering resilience at both the farm and industry level.
Learn More & Connect
–To connect with Dr. Ruth Dittrich, please email – dittrich@up.edu
–To learn more about Adaptation Futures, please visit – https://adaptationfutures2025.com/programme
Contribute
Help Dr. Dittrich and the School of Business Faculty continue their research. Your contribution will directly impact students and society!
